【查證】歐布萊恩公開講要炸台積電的論述?本人三度澄清!問答完整脈絡解析
網傳「美國官員公開講要炸毀台積電」的訊息,內容聲稱美國前國家安全顧問歐布萊恩( Robert O’Brien )公開表示,若是中共奪取台灣,美國要炸毀台積電。經查證,網傳訊息來自《 Semafor 》的報導,記者在 2023 年 3 月 13 日訪問歐布萊恩後,詮釋解讀其言論,並以「中共侵台美國要炸毀台灣晶片廠」作為標題。事實上,歐布萊恩並沒有說過「美國要炸毀台積電」,而是提到中共想入侵台灣,有地緣政治、奪取半導體產業等考量;歐布萊恩也針對相關內容三度澄清,表示唯一會摧毀台灣的國家是中國大陸,不是美國;2023 年 3 月 24 日也提到,普丁攻打烏克蘭時摧毀了基礎設施跟電網,如果中共以同樣方式攻打台灣,半導體產業恐怕無法存活下來。網傳訊息將媒體報導標題當作歐布萊恩說過的話,容易造成誤解。
歐布萊恩公開說美國要炸毀台積電?
原始謠傳版本:
昨天蔡總統頒授勳章給美國前國家安全顧問歐布萊特,這位前美國國家安全顧問可是公開講必要時要把台積電給炸掉的人!蔡總統居然頒勳章給這樣的人是得了失心瘋了嗎!
並在社群平台流傳:
查證解釋:
網傳訊息的原始出處為何?
MyGoPen 檢視網傳有關「美國前國家安全顧問要炸毀台積電」的說法,大多是指歐布萊恩( Robert O’Brien )參加美國智庫「蘇凡中心」( The Soufan Center )在卡達首都杜哈舉辦的「全球安全論壇 」( Global Security Forum )時的一段發言,而蘇凡中心也在 2023 年 4 月 6 日發布完整的訪談影片。
根據論壇第一天(3 月 13 日)的議程表,這場「爐邊談話」( FIRESIDE CHAT )是由美國媒體《 Semafor 》創始編輯克萊蒙斯( Steven Clemons )主持,長度約半小時。
訪談結束後,克萊蒙斯在同一天發布報導《前川普政府官員表示如果中國入侵,美國將毀掉台灣的晶片工廠》( The U.S. would destroy Taiwan’s chip plants if China invades, says former Trump official ),並於個人觀點提到:
「當美國和盟友無法阻止中國控制台灣時,這位國家安全顧問可能知道是否存在某種『終結台積電』的行動計畫。歐布萊恩並沒有明確表示有這樣的計畫。」
歐布萊恩本人曾三度澄清
有關歐布萊恩提議炸毀台積電的訊息,大多都是引用這篇報導。但要強調的一點是,報導發布後,歐布萊恩隨即在個人推特澄清「唯一有軍事計畫奪取台灣及其工業基地的國家是中國,美國只有保護台灣和台灣人民的計畫。事實是中共入侵,台灣的晶片工廠將無法運作。」
歐布萊恩同一天接受《中央社》專訪,同樣提及「除了習近平與中共,沒有人想毀掉台灣或入侵台灣;美國和台灣一樣,會致力於阻止中國入侵,讓中國意識到攻打台灣十分困難。 任何指控美國將以某種方式摧毀台灣或攻擊台灣的說法,都是中共的宣傳與假訊息。」
此外,歐布萊恩於 3 月 20 日訪問台灣,在 24 日舉行的「全球台灣研究中心(GTI)『美台關係工作小組』訪問團記者會」也詳細說明(37:33 開始):
「半導體產業也是需要大量的能源以及電力,普丁在入侵攻打烏克蘭的時候,他卻破壞烏克蘭的基礎設施還有電網,假如習近平也跟隨普丁的步伐,用同樣的方式攻打台灣的話,那麼台灣的半導體產業恐怕是沒辦法存活下來。所以我不認為中國武力入侵台灣還能取得半導體產業,這就是我在蘇凡中心論壇上講的,其實就是要強調中國對台灣的威脅,以及強調美國對台灣的安全承諾以及友誼。唯一可能摧毀台灣半導體產業的敵人絕對是中國跟中國共產黨,絕對不會是美國。」
上述可知,歐布萊恩至少三次澄清會摧毀台灣半導體的是中國,不是美國。
以下將完整翻譯 2023 年 3 月 13 日,歐布萊恩在全球安全論壇針對台積電議題的問答內容。
2023 / 3 / 13 歐布萊恩談台積電
克萊蒙斯:「讓我問一個有關台灣的問題。最近我對美國在加倍投資和再投資晶片產業,並吸引最高品質的晶片製造商回流的舉措進行了深思。他們會需要一些時間來實現這一目標,然而,在智能、高效的下一代技術領域都需要晶片,而這些晶片是由台灣製造。而我則在此思索,當美國與俄羅斯糾纏不清時,中國是否會覺得這是一個過於誘人的目標,或中國是否會趁機入侵並說:『嘿,我們想要這些晶片,我們將佔領所有的產能。』美國會容許這種情況發生嗎?」
Let me ask you a question about Taiwan. I thought a lot recently about America's doubling down on (now) investing and reinvesting in the chips industry reshoring and attracting back the highest quality chipmakers. They’re going to take some time to do that but the crown jewels in the world of everything smart, efficient Next Generation ACT require chips and those chips are made in Taiwan. And I'm just sitting here saying is this too attractive a target, or China while it sees America distracted in Russia, or China to come in and say ”hey, we want those chips for ourselves and we are going to take that whole capacity.” Is America going to let that happen?
歐布萊恩:「不,我們絕不會容許那樣的事發生。中國對台灣有三個原因的考量,首先從地緣政治的角度來看,台灣是太平洋上的軟木塞,如果軟木塞被打開,中國將取得對台灣的控制權,從而掌控整個太平洋地區。你知道,他們能將我們在北方的盟友,韓國與日本及南方的盟友,紐澳、菲律賓、泰國和其他國家隔絕開來,這樣一來,他們就能在整個印太地區自由馳騁,使用駐紮在台灣的核潛艇和艦艇。從地緣政治角度來看,如果中國奪取台灣,那將是一場災難。」
No, we're not going to let that happen. Chinese are looking at Taiwan for three reasons, one geopolitically it's the cork in the Pacific that cork pops open the Chinese get access to it. They control the whole Pacific. You know they cut off our allies in the north South Korea and Japan from our allies in the South ANZ’s powers and and the Philippines and Thailand and other countries and they've got free range then for their nuclear submarines and servant ships based in Taiwan through the whole indo-pacific region. So that geopolitically would be a disaster if China took Taiwan.
歐布萊恩:「第二個原因涉及到晶片問題。我們(超)小型的 5 奈米及以下晶片,有 90% 是由台灣的台積電製造。 (而)中國至今仍無法在國內複製這項產業,不像他們在許多其他產業方面已經在國內成功複製。如果他們掌控了台積電的工廠和研究設施,他們將成為晶片界的石油輸出國家組織,並控制世界經濟。現在讓我們面對現實,那是不可能發生的。我的意思是,即使中國成功入侵台灣,美國及其盟友也絕不會讓這些工廠落入中國人手中。」
Number two it goes to your point of the chips. 90% of our (super) the small 5 nanometer and less (chips), silicon chips are made by TSMC in Taiwan. (and if) China has not been able to replicate that industry unlike many other industries that they’ve been able to replicate in their own country. If they got control of the TSMC factories and research facilities, they’d be the new OPEC of silicon chips and control the world economy. Now let's face it, that's never going to happen. I mean the United States and its allies are never going to let those factories fall into Chinese hands even if there was a successful invasion of Taiwan.
歐布萊恩:「我是說你會看到當維琪法國(法蘭西國)向德國投降時,法國艦隊所遇到的類似情況。英國人不允許法國艦隊保持完整,以防它可能被交給德國,從而改變大西洋戰場上的權力平衡。」
I mean you're looking at something similar to what happened with the French Fleet when when Vichy France surrendered to Germany. The Brits didn't allow the French Fleet to remain intact so that it could potentially gone to the Germans and change the balance of power in the battlefield of the Atlantic.
克萊蒙斯:「他們炸了艦隊。」
They bombed that Fleet.
歐布萊恩:「那支艦隊被摧毀,據說丘吉爾走進下議院時,這位親法派人士淚流滿面,因為這是他在戰爭中所做出最艱難的決定之一,然而當他走進下議院時,他受到了全體議員的一致掌聲。因為他們明白這對英國的未來以及繼續與納粹德國戰鬥的能力有多麼重要。因此再一次,我認為目前面臨著非常相似的情況,即使他們以某種方式成功入侵,我不認為台積電的工廠、研究設施等等會落入中國人手中。」
That fleet was destroyed and it was said that Churchill walked into the House of Commons he was a Francophile with tears streaming down his face because it was the hardest decision he made in the war and yet he was greeted by unanimous applause as he entered the House. Because they understood how important that was to the the future of Great Britain and the ability to continue the struggle against Nazi Germany. And again I think you have a very similar situation here I don't think TSMC factories, research facilities (you know) things of that nature fall into the Chinese hands even if they were somehow successful in the invasion.
克萊蒙斯:「就是說,如果中國成功奪取台灣,那些設施和產能就會消失,我聽到你說的意思是這樣嗎?」
(that's) They would be gone is what you're saying, they would be gone if the Chinese successfully took Taiwan. Those facilities and production capacity would be gone. Is that what I'm hearing you say?
歐布萊恩:「我無法想像它們完好無損。」
I can't imagine they'd be intact.
2022 / 11 / 10 歐布萊恩談台積電
歐布萊恩在全球安全論壇的發言,其實並非首次提出,他在 2022 年 11 月 10 日由「理查尼克森基金會」( Richard Nixon Foundation )舉辦的「大戰略峰會」( Grand Strategy Summit )開幕上,其實就發表過幾乎一模一樣的的觀點,以下同樣翻譯歐布萊恩的問答內容(6:30 開始)。
主持人:「中共是否會在未來兩年下令攻擊台灣?」( Will the Chinese Communist Party order an attack on Taiwan in the next two years? )
歐布萊恩:「聽著,這是我們國家面臨的頭號威脅,台灣之於美國非常重要,有幾點原因。首先,從地緣政治的角度來看,它至關重要,它在第一島鏈中佔據著關鍵位置。如果該島被中國接管,它是一個遼闊的島嶼,它將分隔我們在北方的盟友,本和韓國,與我們在南方的盟友,紐西蘭、澳大利亞、菲律賓、泰國,以及其他合作夥伴如越南。」
Look, it is the number one security threat we face as a country. Taiwan is very important for us for a number of reasons. First, geopolitically, it’s critical it’s it holds a key spot in the first island chain. And if that island gets taken over, it’s a large island if it gets taken over by China, it divides our allies in the north, Japan and South Korea, from our allies in the south, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines. Thailand our treaty allies but also other partners like Vietnam.
歐布萊恩:「其次,它有點像香檳瓶中的瓶塞,太平洋中的瓶塞,因此如果把台灣拿走,交給中國,中共海軍就可以湧入整個太平洋地區,你知道的,從我所在的加州海岸一直延伸到阿拉斯加和夏威夷,覆蓋南方的諸島,其中許多島嶼是我們的祖父和曾祖父為之戰鬥的地方,他們將在太平洋自由馳騁。」
Number two, it’s kind of like the cork in the champagne bottle, the Pacific, so if you pop Taiwan out, and give that to the Chinese, the PLA Navy can pour out into the entire Pacific, you know, from the coast might where I live in California, all the way up to Alaska to Hawaii, all the islands in the South, the islands, many of our grandfathers and great uncles fought for, they’ll have free reign in the Pacific.
歐布萊恩:「第二(應為第三點),該島擁有一個名為台積電的晶片製造商,以及與台積電相關的整個晶片製造生態體系,該公司製造了我們使用的95%先進的電腦晶片,不僅用於軍事產品,還用於我們的汽車和智慧手機。如果中國奪取台灣並完整保留這些工廠,我認為我們絕不會允許,他們將壟斷晶片,就像石油輸出國家組織對石油的壟斷一樣,甚至更甚。」
Number two. The island contains a chip manufacturer called TSMC. And a whole ecosystem of chip manufacturers associated with TSMC which makes 95% of the advanced computer chips that we use, not only in our military products, but in our cars and smartphones. If China takes Taiwan and takes those factories intact, which I don’t think we would ever allow, they become, they have a monopoly over chips the way OPEC has a monopoly or even more than the OPEC has a monopoly over oil.
歐布萊恩:「第三(應為第四點),台灣的民主制度,台灣人民與我們共享價值觀。這可能是發生在民主制度中最令人振奮的故事。過去 30 至 40 年來,他們從威權政府過渡為一個真正的民主制度。那裡的人民非常優秀,他們與我們分享著相同的價值觀。它可能是亞洲地區最親近美國的地方。」
And number three, Taiwan’s democracy, Taiwan, the people of Taiwan share our values. It’s probably the most exciting story that’s happened with a democracy. In the last 30 or 40 years. They went from an authoritarian government to a full true democracy. The people there are wonderful, they share our values. It’s probably the closest place in Asia to the United States.
上述可知,依照歐布萊恩的觀點,中國要奪取台灣,主要是受到地緣政治、晶片產業及台灣民主體制三種因素所影響。
2022 / 12 / 2 歐布萊恩談台積電
歐布萊恩在 2022 年 12 月 2 日出席「美國外交關係協會」(Council on Foreign Relations, CFR )舉辦的會議,記者提問環節也有談到台積電(50:45 開始)。
美國國際開發署( USAID )技術部副主任 Sabeen Dhanani:「考慮到目前大多數晶片是在台灣製造,你會擔心晶片法案以及將製造業轉移到美國,實際上是向中國傳遞一個訊號,即美國實際上正在降低對於台海的關注,並讓台海更加脆弱?」
So given that the majority of microchips are currently manufactured in Taiwan, do you worry that the CHIPS Act and moving this manufacturing to the United States actually sends a signal to China that we’re actually—the U.S. is actually—huh? That the U.S. is actually, like, you know, reducing our interest in the Taiwan Strait, and actually making them more vulnerable?
歐布萊恩:「不,聽著,我認為情況剛好相反。我認為擁有如此集中的先進晶片製造能力,而你提到的晶片製造能力,可能佔據全球 90% 的先進晶片市場,非常小的奈米晶片,這些來自台灣的台積電。我認為這為中國提供了不正當的動機,他們還沒有發展出這麼高階的晶片製造能力,它們可以製造一般的晶片,但做不出高階晶片,他們還沒有找到製造這些晶片的秘密。除了從奪取台灣獲得的地緣政治利益外,這還提供了一種動機,如果他們能夠掌控台積電的廠房及相關的實驗室等,那將使中共在晶片製造領域上獲得壟斷地位。」
No. Look, I think it’s just the opposite. I think that having such a concentration of the advanced chipmaking—and the chipmaking you’re referring to is probably 90 percent of the world market for advanced chips, the really small nanometer chips. Those come from TSMC in Taiwan. And I think it provides a perverse incentive for the Chinese, who have not been able to develop a chip manufacturing capability at the high levels—they can do the commodities chips but they can’t do the high-level chips. They haven’t figured out the secret sauce yet. That’s what an incentive, beyond the geopolitical benefits that come from taking Taiwan, if they could get ahold of the TSMC factories and related labs and that sort of thing, you know, that would give the Chinese a stranglehold—the Communist Party of China—a stranglehold on chipmaking.
歐布萊恩:「我們絕不能允許這種情況發生。因此,我認為台積電多元化,在亞利桑那州、荷蘭、英國以及全球範圍內(在印度)設廠對台積電有益,這對公司有利。它在台灣和這些國家樹立了對公司的支持。同時,它削弱了一些中國可能入侵的動機。聽著,其中一個擔憂是,如果中國發起兩棲入侵,並且看起來可能最終會成功,那麼美國該如何處理這些工廠?我是說,我們會面臨類似邱吉爾遇到的法國艦隊問題嗎?我們能夠允許-你知道的,我認為 5 年後情況會有所不同,因為晶片法案的實施,這裡正在建設新的廠房。但與此同時,我們能夠允許類似德國人佔領法國艦隊的情況發生嗎?邱吉爾不允許,我們能嗎?」
We can never allow that to happen. And so I think TSMC diversifying and having factories in Arizona, in the Netherlands, in the U.K., you know, around the world—in India—around the world, is good for TSMC. It’s good for the company. It builds support for the company in Taiwan in those countries. And it takes away some of the incentive that the Chinese might have to otherwise invade. I mean, look, one of the concerns is if the Chinese—if the Chinese launched an amphibious invasion, and it looked like it might eventually be successful, what does the U.S. do with those factories? I mean, do we have a situation like Churchill faced with the French fleet? And can we allow—you know, and I think the situation will be different five years from now, with the new factories that are being built here because of the CHIPS Act. But in the meantime, can we allow the—you know, the equivalent of the Germans taking the French fleet? Churchill didn’t allow that. Could we allow that?
歐布萊恩:「所以我認為,台積電目前的情況對中國來說有一點挑釁意味,並不能提供安全保障。事實上,它以違反直覺的方式削弱了台灣的安全性,這是我的觀點。」
So it’s a—I think it’s a little—I think the TSMC situation is a little provocative for China right now, and doesn’t provide security. In fact, it counterintuitively lessens the security of Taiwan, in my view.
上述可知,歐布萊恩是在這場訪問中提及法國艦隊的舉例,加上 11 月提及的中國奪取台灣考量,最後匯流成 3 月 13 日於杜哈論壇上發表的觀點。三場公開發言都提到台灣半導體的重要性及可能因此成為中共侵台的動機,但無論是哪一場會議,都沒有公開說過「美國要炸毀台積電」。
歐布萊恩有關台積電發言時序
結論
總結來說,網傳訊息大多是基於《 Semafor 》的報導,記者針對歐布萊恩的發言進行詮釋後,以「美國要摧毀台灣晶片廠」為標題,進而引起後續一連串討論;事實上, 歐布萊恩沒有說過「美國要炸毀台積電」,他本人也已針對相關內容三度澄清,網傳訊息的文字敘述容易造成誤解。
資料來源:
YouTube - Global Security Forum FIRESIDE CHAT with Hon. Robert C. O’Brien at the 2023 Global Security Forum
Global Security Forum 2023 - Reshaping the Global Order: Conflict, Crises, and Cooperation
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