Consumer confidence rises slightly in March: Conference Board

Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman and Brad Smith discuss a preliminary consumer sentiment reading for March.

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JULIE HYMAN: We've got that out from the Conference Board, consumer confidence for the month of March, rising slightly to 104.2, up from 103.4 in February, so a little bit higher here. And basically, the Conference Board is saying this is based on consumer's assessment of current business and labor market conditions.

I should say, that's the present situation index. That actually fell. It was the expectations index that went higher. So that's quite interesting, at the same time, the Conference Board pointing out for 12 of the last 13 months, that expectations part of the index has been below 80, the level which often signals a recession within the next year.

Also importantly, look at this consumer survey, is the timing of it. The cutoff date was March 20. That's about 10 days after we had the bank failures, so reflects the concern around them, but maybe had died down a little bit, but quite interesting here to see a little bit of an increase in consumer confidence.

BRAD SMITH: Yeah, they did say, however, for 12 of the last 13 months since February 2022, the expectations index that you were mentioning, that has been below 80, the level that often signals a recession within the next year, cutoff date, as you were mentioning, March 20 there. So that is going to be interesting as we move forward.

But I think for what we've heard from the Fed's reaction and what we'll continue to hear and even hearing is taking place today. It's largely also going to be a conversation that comes in tandem around what the employment situation looks like because consumers who are looking across employment and saying, OK, well, I'm making more than I was before, perhaps, and there's still more jobs out there, should I decide to change over. There's confidence that could come along with that on the consumption side of the equation as well.

JULIE HYMAN: Yeah, we'll see if that's what ends up happening.