Are the Raptors too predictable on defence?

Amit Mann and C.J. Miles weigh the pros and cons of the Raptors' defensive style. Listen to the full episode on the "Raptors Over Everything" podcast feed or watch on our YouTube.

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AMIT MANN: Let's get to this Raptors defense. And this is stemming from a comment that Joel Embiid made after the 76ers game where he said that, you know, with Toronto, it seems like they're more interested in stopping superstars than winning games. And I don't think that is necessarily true because obviously the Raptors want to win games. That's ridiculous.

But there is something to be said about when I see cases where-- you know, the Raptors, like Nick Nurse specifically, they're very committed to their system. And when I see Joel Embiid, he's not even in like a triple-threat position. He's just standing there on the perimeter, and they just send a double at him. And then it's swing, swing, open 3.

And that was the case in the 76ers game where, eventually, Melton started hitting shots. James Harden started hitting shots. In the first quarter, second quarter, they weren't going in. But eventually they started to go in.

And that's where I'm just, like, is this the right approach? Yesterday, I mean-- or last night, their zone defense was terrific, right? It really did negate a lot of the advantages that the Knicks had. And they were missing Quentin Grimes, who's been a great 3-point shooter. They definitely could have used him yesterday.

CJ MILES: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

AMIT MANN: But do you feel like, at times, it's a little bit too rigid or a little bit too predictable? When you see superstars come in saying, yeah, you know how Toronto does. I kind of feel like that's a bit annoying to hear that because it's like they know what's coming, and they're scheming against it. And Nick is saying, well, I mean, beat our defense. And some superstars are saying, well, bet. OK, cool.

CJ MILES: I think-- so the biggest thing is I'm not gonna let Joel Embiid beat me 'cause I know he can't. You know what I mean? So, defensively, especially with who I got to guard him right now, I don't have a big enough 5 that can really match up with him one-on-one. I don't have a sturdy enough 5 right now.

I mean, all of my 5s besides bigs had pretty slim, slender, mobile guys, right? And you see them proving that the bigger guys can't guard them either. So if I'm looking at the numbers, I'm looking at how they've been playing, I'm looking at how Embiid's been playing, I go into his building, I'm gonna make those other guys beat me.

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

CJ MILES: Now, I understand what Embiid is trying to say, but, like, I was like, that sounds like what the guy who's doing the doubles every time would say because that's what he's reading. He's reading, they want to stop me. Yes, I want to stop you. I want to stop the guy who can have 45 in 18.

AMIT MANN: Hmm.

CJ MILES: If I can take 45 from 18, and I give up one guy going 2 for 6 from 3 tonight? That's a big difference. Now, there are gonna be nights you're gonna lose games [INAUDIBLE], and they're gonna be guys that'll come up and make shots and stuff is gonna happen.

But if I'm playing the numbers, more ti-- like during a series, I want that other guy to show up for seven games. I don't want to let Embiid show up for seven games. That's the way-- yeah, that's the way I'm looking at it.

Now, you have to make adjustments throughout the game. And if things get going, sometimes it might be too late if a guy gets pretty hot. And, like you said, if that other guy's name is Harden, it's really hard because--

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

CJ MILES: --that's James Harden over there. And that's another dilemma you gotta run into. There's not a lot of James Hardens standing beside the other guy like that.

AMIT MANN: Right. Yeah.

CJ MILES: There's not a lot of places like that. So there's a lot of things that go into that. I don't think it's predictable. I think you just gotta execute. And you gotta be able to make reads.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. And you need to have, like, 10 players who are completely in sync. And I've said this many times. And the lapses that you see, even the play that I'm thinking of with Joel Embiid, it was Chris Boucher who didn't get to the baseline to get the corner 3-point shooter. He wasn't paying attention.

And, I mean, I guess it's the nature of defense is that you gotta be-- you know, 24 seconds, you gotta be locked in, every single possession. Even something like the fly-by closeouts, which I see the Raptors do all the time, a couple of times last night while the Knicks were making their run. Raptor player fly-bys them. 3-point shot's wide open. Or they take a dribble into the baseline, and they hit a 2. I'm just like, do you gotta do that every single time? Or-- I mean, I'm sure the metrics suggest that--

CJ MILES: Exactly.

AMIT MANN: --probably that's the best way to do it. But do you just mix it up sometimes? Because, again, these other teams know that you are doing that.

And players more often, more than ever, are-- you know, during the summertime, they're preparing for those cases where a Raptors player, Pascal Siakam flies by them to take a side dribble or a dribble in, and they're hitting the shot. Things are kind of evolving with time. And do you have to also evolve a little bit?

CJ MILES: Yeah, and they will. But this is the problem. Like you said, it's a numbers game. The numbers are gonna tell me, if we look up the numbers, that the guy pump-faking and taking it one dribble in is not making that shot as much as he's making the standstill corner 3.

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

CJ MILES: And I understand that I'm not-- I don't play the numbers that way. I'm thinking, I'm looking at it by-- I mean, if I'm going to play a guy, I'm looking at the last couple games and seeing what he's been doing. And I kind of [INAUDIBLE] him off that and play him off that.

But, at some point, like you said, guys are becoming more talented. They're understanding what's going. They're coming back to working on a mid-range shot. That was the plan for the year. Nobody even worked on it.

AMIT MANN: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

AMIT MANN: That's why the numbers were so bad. That's why were the numbers were so bad. But like last night-- who was it? Quickley. Fly-by 3 in the corner.

Side [INAUDIBLE] makes a big 3 in the corner. Obviously, he's 5-- 5 for 6 at that time. But a lot of nights, that's not gonna happen.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. Yeah. It's just frustrating when I see it. Like--

CJ MILES: No, I--

AMIT MANN: --the point you're talking about, it was Scottie Barnes who flew by him. Just like, do you need to do that?

CJ MILES: I understand. But if I don't, the numbers go-- stay super high if I don't even get there.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. Or like, you know--

CJ MILES: [INAUDIBLE].

AMIT MANN: --late fourth-quarter situation if you have a player who's anticipating a fly-by closeout and you don't, doesn't that take them out of their rhythm a little bit?

CJ MILES: Sometimes. But it's a reaction sometimes, too, like if I'm in rotation, and I'm rotating out of the corner. And that wasn't my guy, and I'm trying to just get over there to make the rotation. And we're talking about a guy like last night. That guy had made five 3's already.

AMIT MANN: Yeah.

CJ MILES: So I'm not even think-- I'm not stopping short. Like that's the other thing we gotta remember is the shooter, if it's me standing in the corner, nobody's stopping shit. Ever.

AMIT MANN: Yeah. They're coming at you.

CJ MILES: Like, that's just-- yeah, that's just because that's just the best-- that's what's in their scouting report. That's what this guy does. I'm gonna make sure I make him do something different.

That's what it's more about than it is the fly-by. It's just making sure he doesn't have the rhythm. That's a different rhythm, too.

Now, there's only a-- there's not a lot of guys that are elite enough to make that shot consistently. Because even if we look at Quickley, he's like, that-- that number drops. Last night he's out and shooting it well. He can shoot the ball, but if we look up his side-step 3's, probably not that high of a number. It's frustrating when you're in a close game in the fourth quarter, and the guy is 5 for 5--

AMIT MANN: Maybe. Maybe that's why this came up. [LAUGHS]

CJ MILES: That's the other thing. But that's fine, though. That's watching the game and picking it apart. Now, we could have did something else because he's made this, he's done that. And that's what's been happening. But it's the nature of it.