Top Gun: Maverick 'is one of the most well-received blockbusters we've seen in years': Analyst

Box Office Pro Chief Analyst Shawn Robbins explains how Jurassic World: Dominion may overtake Top Gun: Maverick in box offices on its opening weekend, the state of the summer blockbuster, trends in theatergoers, the outlook on this year's releases, and defining profitability amid hybrid and streaming movie releases.

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RACHELLE AKUFFO: As "Top Gun, Maverick" edges closer to grossing a billion dollars worldwide, could it be dethroned by "Jurassic World Dominion" this weekend? We break down this battle at the box office with Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro chief analyst. Thank you for joining us. So "Jurassic" not getting great reviews, but school is out, so we might get a boost there from some of the kids. What is your take? Do you think they can dethrone "Top Gun"?

SHAWN ROBBINS: I think it's inevitable. There's a lot of love for the "Jurassic" movies. They've not always been the best with critics, but they've tended to be critic-proof in the past, especially these last couple of films since the reboot started in 2015. And this is really the kind of big screen, just fun, popcorn, dinosaur movie that I think a lot of people have missed over the last few years. And I think people of all ages love dinosaurs. Self-admittedly, I think adults do, too, just as much as kids.

DAVE BRIGGS: Yeah, I loved the first one, but they certainly have dropped off a bit in quality over the years. So as for "Top Gun, Maverick," how big has the drop-off been? And what-- demographically, who continues to drive this film? Is it older viewers?

SHAWN ROBBINS: You know, it began as older viewers, predominantly those over 35. But we saw with its second weekend, the audience started to skew a little bit younger. More of that 25 to 34 range started showing up. And I think that's attributable to word of mouth. This is a movie that, it plays incredibly well. Its word of mouth is very close to immaculate at this point. Arguably, I think one of the most well-received blockbusters we've seen in years. So it is still predominantly the older audience. But I think there is some expansion there. And it's going to continue holding very well throughout the summer, even if it gets hit a little bit by "Jurassic" this weekend.

SEANA SMITH: Shawn, the fact that we have two very, very big movies right now, blockbuster movies potentially playing in theaters, what does that tell you just about how far the movie industry, the film industry, has come since the start of the pandemic? Because there was a time when we were questioning if we would ever see theaters fill up again.

SHAWN ROBBINS: That's true. This really speaks volumes to the fact that a lot of people still crave that big screen experience, but also the communal aspect of it, going to movies with friends and families. It's just something that's not really entirely replicable at home.

And I think we see movies like "Spider Man" and "Batman" and "Doctor Strange" and "Top Gun" and "Jurassic World." We're getting closer and closer back to some sense of normalcy in terms of what's coming out and how often it's coming out. This summer has really been kind of circled on the calendar for that because it had been staggered for a while. We would get a big new movie, and then nothing would come out for a few weeks or even months. That's really changed over the last four to six weeks.

RACHELLE AKUFFO: And speaking of the evolution of the summer blockbuster, obviously, it all started with "Jaws" back in the day. This used to be a dead season. So as we go into it now, as we're looking at what we're seeing on the big screen versus that sort of fight with streaming giants, what else should we be looking forward to this summer?

SHAWN ROBBINS: In terms of movies, I think we have a lot to look forward to still after "Jurassic." There are a number of mid-range movies that will be coming out that'll really test the market. "Lightyear," "Elvis." Something like "The Black Phone" could be a sleeper hit with horror fans. Then we get "Minions." "Thor" is really kind of the next major one after "Jurassic." That'll probably be the next biggest movie for the second back of summer.

And once we get kind of into that, we get "Nope" from Jordan Peele, an original horror movie that should do very well. It's something that I think offers a lot of content that is not going to be available in home. People want to do both, ultimately. I think people who stream ultimately want to get out of the house every now and then and go see movies like this. And we're seeing both co-exist. And I think that'll be the story for some time to come.

RACHELLE AKUFFO: And I want to talk budgets. Obviously, when you look at what's going into, obviously, mostly CGI and things like that for "Jurassic World," are they getting enough return on the investment, considering what they're putting in right now?

SHAWN ROBBINS: "Jurassic" will. It's certainly a worldwide player. It will very likely do well more outside of North America than it will do in North America itself, which will still be a hefty sum. That's not really easily said for a lot of movies. And we're kind of in an era where we have to redefine what's profitable and what's not because it used to be strictly defined by downstream revenues from home video, DVD, Blu-ray. That's a thing of the past now in most respects. It's now about streaming and driving subscription services.

And there's a lot of gray-- there are a lot of gray areas there. I think studios themselves are still trying to figure that out. And honestly, the fact that we have seen more studios go back to theatrically exclusive windows this year, as more people have gone back to everyday lives, pre-pandemic lives, that really says, you know, I think the reading is-- or the writing is on the wall, in some respects, as to what studios find profitable going forward.

SEANA SMITH: "Jurassic World" out this weekend. I think lots of people will be heading to the theaters to see that. Shawn Robbins, great to have you. Thanks so much for joining us today.