飢「韓」交迫：對抗糧食危機 金正恩推農業自由化政策

策劃、編譯■李威撰 糧食危機長期困擾北韓，營養不良除了影響發育，更威脅到人民生命， 聞，在金正恩的領導下，北韓已推動新的農業改革，希望增加糧產， 政府一方面提高收購價格，同時讓農民保留部分糧產，供其自由買賣。 一名與平壤及北京當局關係緊密的消息來源指出，北韓為增加供給、平抑飆漲的糧食價格並緩和營養不良等問題，計畫允許農民保有更多自己栽種的作物，藉此提振農作產量。 北韓在新任領導人金正恩的領導下，推動的農業自由化措施，將推翻2005年實施的取締私人生產路線。外界議論紛紛，認為年少的金正恩統治赤貧的北韓，正亟思改革力圖振興經濟。 開放農民銷售部分農產品 消息來源表示：「農民將有生產更多糧食的動機，視地區而定，約30％至50％的收穫量可讓農民保留及拿去市場販售。」目前絕大多數的農產品，是以規定的價格賣給政府。 儘管消息來源可靠，但北韓作為全球最封閉的國家之一，無法證實這項消息。這名消息來源曾預測，金正恩的姑丈張成澤將掌權；2006年北韓宣布首次核武試驗時，這名消息來源在展開動作前，曾單獨向《路透》披露過核試驗的準備細節。 1／3人口營養不良 聯合國估計，北韓經濟至今未從1990年代遭遇的毀滅性飢荒中站起來，1／3人口有營養不良問題。據大多數的觀察家指出，北韓需要5百萬公噸的穀物及馬鈴薯才能餵飽民眾，但自1990年代初期以來，每年收穫量只有350萬至470萬公噸。 南韓的專家相信，北韓亟需肥料增加農作產量，但因耕種技巧不佳，土壤因腐蝕而退化。 金正恩的姑丈張成澤先前造訪北京，目的似乎與北韓推動經濟改革有關，中國大陸是北韓目前唯一主要的經濟及外交盟邦。與20年前相比，現在北韓由中央控制的經濟規模已經減少。北韓想要吸引中國的投資，協助北韓克服因核武試驗而招致的嚴厲經濟制裁。 軍隊走向自給自足 大多數的獨立分析家表示，金正恩如果繼續緊握家族的統治權，不曉得經濟自由化的道路能走得多遠。消息來源也表示，北韓也計畫採納中國軍隊的生產模式，讓120萬人的軍隊（全世界規模最大的武裝部隊之一）在糧食上能自給自足。 「學習新疆生產建設兵團，糧食（短缺）問題可望獲得解決。」消息來源表示。新疆生產建設兵團是中國大陸西北部結合國家農地與工廠的準軍事組織網絡，藉由發展經濟及協防邊境國土的方式，在局勢不穩的地區確保穩定性。 後來成為中國國家副主席的王震，在1954年成立該建設兵團。至2011年3月，超過260萬人生活在兵團轄下的14個師，涵蓋土地面積超過70萬平方公里。兵團擁有179處農場、1,400家企業、13家上市公司、大學、媒體通路及醫療院所，2010年總產值達750億人民幣（約新台幣3,500億元）。 因燃料短缺，運輸及中央分配制度開始瓦解，同樣擁有重要經濟利益的北韓軍隊，也被要求部隊有部分要靠自己來養活自己。（路透） ■北韓黃海南道一處集體農場的玉米田，受到颱風及水災影響，一名男童手持鐵鏟站在田裡，圖攝於2011年9月29日。（圖文／路透） North Korea plans to allow farmers to keep more of their produce in an attempt to boost agricultural output, a source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing said, in a move that could boost supplies, help cap rising food prices and ease malnutrition （1）. The move to liberalise （2） agriculture under new leader Kim Jong-un would reverse a crackdown on private production that started in 2005. It comes amid talk that the youngest Kim to rule the impoverished North is considering reforms to boost the economy. "Peasants will have incentive to grow more food. They can keep and sell in the market about 30-50 percent of their harvest depending on the region," said the source. At present, most farm output is sold to the government at a state price that has diverged from the market rate. It was impossible to verify the plan in North Korea, one of the world's most closed states, although the source has proved reliable in the past, predicting the ascent of Kim's uncle, Jang Song-thaek. Also, after North Korea announced it would carry out its first nuclear test in 2006, the source gave Reuters exclusive details of the preparations for that test before it was conducted. North Korea experienced a devastating famine in the 1990s from which its economy has not recovered, and a third of its population is malnourished, according to U.N. estimates. The country needs about 5 million tons of grain and potatoes to feed its people and since the early 1990s its annual harvest has been 3.5-4.7 million tons, according to most observers. Experts in South Korea believe the North desperately needs fertiliser to boost yields （3） in a country where soil has been degraded by erosion due to poor farming techniques. A recent visit to Beijing, North Korea's sole major economic and diplomatic ally, by the youngest Kim's uncle Jang appeared to be aimed at economic reforms in North Korea, whose centrally planned economy is smaller than it was 20 years ago. North Korea wants to attract Chinese investment to help it overcome tough sanctions imposed in retaliation （4） for its nuclear tests. But it is unclear how far Kim Jong-un can go in liberalising the economy without losing his family's firm grip on power, most independent analysts say. The source said North Korea also planned to make its 1.2 million-strong military - one of the largest armed forces in the world - food self-reliant （5） by modelling its production model on China's armed forces. "The food (shortage) problem will hopefully be resolved by learning from the Xinjiang Construction and Production Corps," the source said, referring to the quasi-military network of state farms and factories in northwestern China intended to secure stability in the restive region by developing the economy and helping control borderlands. The Xinjiang corps was founded in 1954 by late vice president Wang Zhen. As of March 2011, more than 2.6 million people lived in the corps' 14 divisions, which cover a combined area of more than 70,000 sq km (27,000 sq miles). The corps owns 179 farms, 1,400 enterprises, 13 listed companies, universities, media outlets and medical institutions, and its output was worth 75 billion yuan ($11.9 billion) in 2010. North Korea's military also has significant economic interests and its armed forces are required in part to feed themselves as transport and a central distribution system have broken down, while fuel is in short supply.（Reuters） 關鍵字詞 1. malnutrition (n.) 營養不良 2. liberalise (v.) 自由化、開放 3. yield (n.) 收穫量、產量 4. retaliation (n.) 報復 5. self-reliant (a.) 靠自己的